Global Asset Allocation: Crude Calculations
The protagonist's task today, as oil prices approached $125/barrel, was to decide whether her pension fund should allocate some funds to oil, and if so, how much? At this point-February 2012-there were many reasons to think about adding oil to her fund. To decide whether to initiate a position in oil, the protagonist must assess its features as a strategic component in any portfolio as well as whether the time is right for an opportunistic tactical allocation. Factors that must be considered include how supply and demand for oil will be affected by global economic policy, geopolitical concerns, and rising demand from emerging markets, among other factors.