The Yield Curve and Growth Forecasts
The protagonist was sifting through the evidence on the predictive content of the yield curve. Did the current steepness of the yield curve mean that a double-dip recession was highly unlikely? And when the yield inverted in the future, as it surely would at some point, would that be a precursor to a recession? From time to time, the market focused on the slope of the yield curve. What can it tell us?