Updating Probabilities
通常価格
¥1,144 JPY
通常価格
セール価格
¥1,144 JPY
単価
あたり
Individuals' judgement of probabilities-the likelihood of different events to occur, or the attribution of likely causes to what has occurred-is plagued by numerous biases and errors. This note focuses on Bayesian updating and the base rate neglect, and also provides a brief overview of other biases, including overconfidence, reversion to the mean, the law of small numbers, the conjunction fallacy, confirming evidence bias, hindsight bias, and the conjunction fallacy. Numerous examples illustrate the implications of the biases for managerial decisions.
【書誌情報】
ページ数:9ページ
サイズ:A4
商品番号:HBSP-UV7452
発行日:2018/4/25
登録日:2018/11/6