Identifying the Next High-Growth Economies
This note is an introduction to using macroeconomics in evaluating the long-term growth prospects of emerging markets. Methodologically, it is an application of growth theory, the Solow model in particular, and it gives students the opportunity to practice reading and interpreting the data of international macroeconomics. The textbook Solow growth model and its basic extensions align well with how investors and policymakers think about forecasting growth and stagnation in emerging markets. However, using public data to measure everything that affects Solow factors is not trivial or necessarily possible, so the note explains the broader, but nonetheless "Solow" approach, of Ruchir Sharma at Morgan Stanley. The note provides data on direct and indirect "canary in the coalmine" growth factors. Classes using the note should center on the question, how do we find the next BRICs? The note is designed as a practical follow-up to growth theory in a first year MBA course, but it would also be appropriate for use in a master's or advanced undergraduate course on growth, emerging markets, or international finance.